2009년 중국 신에너지자동차 전지산업의 발전 분석

 

□ 유리한 정책으로 인해 니켈 수소 전지에 대한 투자 붐이 예상됨.

 

ㅇ 관련 정책

- 2009년 6월 25일 중국 공업정보화부는 《신에너지자동차 생산기업 및 제품 접근관리 규칙》을
대외에 발표하고 2009년 7월 1일부터 시행하였으며 동 정책은 2010년 12월 31일까지 적용됨.
동 표준은 니켈 수소 전지를 생산하는 혼합동력 승용차를 성숙된 제품으로 분류하고 전국적인 범위 내에서 사용하도록 허용하였음.

 

ㅇ 니켈 수소 전지의 발전현황 분석

- 현재 니켈 수소 동력을 활용한 Changan(長安), Qirui(奇瑞), 제일자동차, GM 등 브랜드의
승용차들이 현재 시범 운행 중인데 전지는 주로 외국에서 조달하며 중국 국내에서 개발한
니켈 수소 전지의 자동차에서의 활용은 여전히 연구, 개발 단계임.

 

ㅇ 니켈 수소 전지산업 및 회사 분석

- 니켈 수소 전지 분야에서 중국은 기술과 자원에 있어 모두 우위를 가지고 있으며 그 중 수산화니켈의 성능은 세계에서 앞자리를 차지하며 희토 금속자원이 풍부함.

- 니켈 수소 전지산업의 사슬로 볼 때 상위의 원료 제조업체는 금속광산 채굴업체이며 중간 부분은 켈 수소 전지 재료 공급업체이며 하위는 전지 생산업체임.
상위 생산업체의 현재의 경쟁 상황은 수급이 균형적이며 동력 전지의 하위 생산업체인 Keliyuan(科力遠)과 중간 부분의 제조업체인 Zhongju(中炬)첨단기술회사 모두 공급이 수요를 따라가지 못하는 상황임.

 

□ 동력 리튬전지 3대 투자기회 분석

 

ㅇ 리튬전지 현황 분석

- 현재 많은 유명한 자동차 제조업체들이 리튬전지 자동차를 개발하는 데 주력하고 있는데
중국 국내의 경우 BYD(比亞迪), Jili(吉利), Qirui, Lifan(力帆), Zhongxing(中興) 등 자동차 생산기업들도 연달아 자체의 혼합동력 및 순전동자동차에 동력 리튬전지를 탑재하고 있음.

 

ㅇ 하위 리튬전지 생산업체

- 최근 몇 년래 중국의 자동차 리튬전지산업은 신속하게 성장하여 생산능력이 일본 다음임.
중국의 자동차 리튬입자 전지 연구개발 프로젝트는 줄곧 중국 정부의 “863”계획의 중점 프로젝트로 대부분 재료는 국산화를 실현하였고 중국 국내에 자체적으로 건설하거나 도입한 생산라인이 여러 개이며 부대 재료 생산기업도 여러 개 확보하여 모두 대규모 생산을 진행하고 있으며 시장경쟁이 치열함.

 

ㅇ 중간 부분 전지재료

- 리튬전지 산업사슬의 현재의 생산능력의 비교 중 진입 장벽이 비교적 높은 것은 리튬전지의 양극 재료로 생산능력이 제일 적음.
현재 양극 재료를 생산하는 기업으로는 Baoan(寶安), Zhongxin(中信)-Guoan(國安) 및
Shanshan(杉杉)주식회사, BYD임.

- 양극 재료에 비해 음극 재료는 리튬전지의 원가 비중이 낮은 편으로 중국 국내에서 이미 산업화를 실현하였음.
동 재료를 생산하는 중국의 3대 기업으로는 중국Guoan(國安), Shanshan주식회사,
Changsha(長沙) Hairong(海容)임.

 

ㅇ 상위 리튬전지 재료 탄산 리튬산업 분석

- 함수호에서 독자적으로 리튬을 추출하고 마그네슘을 추출하는 기술 및 생산공법을 기반으로
중국의 일부 대형 공업기업은 최근에 신쟝(신강, 新疆)에 탄산 리튬, 수산화 마그네슘 등 화공제품
생산기지를 건설하기 시작함. 현재 중국 국내에서 탄산 리튬을 생산하는 기업은 주로 티벳광업, Zhongxin-Guoan, 서부광업그룹, 칭하이(청해, 靑海)함수호그룹 4개이며 앞 2개 기업이 대부분
비중을 차지하였음.

 

<목차>

1. 유리한 정책으로 인해 니켈 수소 전지에 대한 투자 붐이 예상됨.

2. 동력 리튬전지 3대 투자기회 분석

3. 5년 후 리튬 전지가 니켈 수소 전지의 주류 지위를 대체하게 될 것임.

 

 

 

In 2009 the new energy automotive battery industry development analysis

 

·        New energy electric car the most important components is the driving force batteries, electric motors and energy conversion control systems, while the power battery to achieve fast charging, security and other high-performance, high technical threshold, but also the most concentrated part of the profits. Investment Advisor in the new energy automotive industry researcher Li Sheng-mao said that the new energy vehicles demanding on the battery, you must have a high specific energy, high specific power, fast charging and deep discharge performance, and requires the cost as low as possible, the use of Shou as long as possible.

According to the Investment Advisor "issued by the battery industry in China 2009-2012 Forecast of investment analysis and report" shows that the new energy vehicles will be in the "Ni-MH - Lithium-Ion battery - fuel cell" industry-oriented development path. Able to deliver only the short-term performance of nickel-hydrogen batteries, lithium iron phosphate battery immature, as well as the Department of Public letter issued new standards for access to new energy vehicles also made nickel-hydrogen battery manufacturers have seen in the short-term hope. But ,3-5 years in lithium battery technology is mature, the nickel-metal hydride battery lithium battery market will be gradually eroded.

Furthermore, in recent years, fuel cell (FC) and technological advances make the dream of hydrogen become a reality in the 21st century. The hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicles (FCV) has been the world's governments and enterprises attach great importance to, and has made significant progress, is expected in the next 5 - 10 years FCV will officially enter the market to hydrogen refueling station, Hydrogen transmission pipeline construction, marked "hydrogen economy" horizon.

The study found that the Japanese supplier of lithium batteries account for a large dominant position and has begun to formulate a unified lithium battery specifications, safety standards, charging. By the United States so as not to become dependent on imported oil to foreign dependence of lithium batteries, but also to support electric cars and lithium battery manufacturers, the U.S. Department of Energy, also approved a 25 billion U.S. dollars last year in loans. By comparison, automakers in Europe while in the green energy-saving environmental protection is very radical, even more radical, but they are in improving the conventional engine (such as its "small", the use of gas / diesel direct injection technology), the or hydrogen-powered vehicles, more obvious advantages.

　　Part I: Policy Ni-MH battery usher in investment in good feast

Investment Consultants in industrial research center was informed that the June 25 letter to the Ministry of day laborers released the "new energy automobile manufacturing companies and product access management rules", and was effective on July 1 to December 31, 2010 apply. Investment Advisor in the new energy automotive industry researcher Li Sheng-mao said, according to the Ministry of Public letter issued new standards to nickel-metal hydride battery production hybrid passenger car is classified as a mature product that allows nationwide sales of the use of pairs of nickel-metal hydride battery industry is a big plus.

I. Analysis of nickel-metal hydride battery development

Nickel-hydrogen battery has just entered the mature stage, is currently used in hybrid electric vehicle battery system, the only real validation was commercial, large-scale battery systems, the global mass-produced hybrid car has been used in all nickel-hydrogen battery system.

According to the Investment Advisor "issued by China's new energy vehicles 2008-2010 Industry Analysis and Investment Consulting Report" report shows that 99% of the current hybrid battery market share for the nickel-hydrogen batteries, commercial representative of Toyota Prius. Currently the world's leading vehicle power battery manufacturers are mainly in Japan PEVE and Sanyo, PEVE Global Hybrid-powered cars occupy the Ni-MH battery 85% of the market share, is currently the main commercial hybrid cars such as Toyota Prius, Alphard and Estima, as well as the Honda Civic, Insight Dengjun used PEVE nickel hydrogen batteries.

At present, the Chang'an Jie Xun, Chery A5, FAW Pentium, General Grand Hyatt brands such as model cars have been running, they are also used in nickel-metal hydride batteries, but batteries are purchasing from abroad, the domestic nickel-metal hydride batteries in the car on the use of match is still in development stage. Keli Yuan is currently working with the domestic Chery Automobile, Chang'an Automobile and other co-operation, the first production line of products are mainly supplied Chery Automobile.

2, Ni-MH battery industry and company analysis

In the field of nickel-hydrogen batteries, China in technology and resources are an advantage, in which performance of the world's leading nickel hydroxide, rare-earth rich in natural resources, has unique advantages in resources, therefore, the development of nickel-hydrogen battery is the country's most realistic option.

Investment Advisor in the new energy automotive industry researcher Li Sheng-mao that from Ni-MH battery industry chain perspective, the upstream raw material manufacturers for the metal mineral mining companies, mid-stream for the nickel-metal hydride battery materials supplier, downstream of the battery manufacturer. From a more optimistic view of the industry chain downstream manufacturers, the current state of competition in the upstream firms supply-demand balance, but the battery power is far downstream and midstream Keli Torch High-tech manufacturers are in short supply in the state.

Nickel mining in the upstream business with Jean-nickel industry, while the middle reaches of producing nickel-metal hydride battery materials, domestic listed companies, including Jinrui Technology (cathode material for nickel hydroxide), Xiamen Tungsten, and Baotou Steel Rare-earth (RE anode materials for hydrogen storage alloy powder ), in which Xiamen Tungsten is the Ni-MH battery production of hydrogen storage powder leading enterprises, but also involves the production of lithium battery cathode materials, with good room for development.

Downstream firms, the domestic production capacity with a nickel-hydrogen battery or plan to enter the field include Chunlan Group, Ke-li Yuan, the torch high-tech, Hunan Shenzhou, Kane shares, etc., which Chunlan Group is the nickel-hydrogen battery technology HEV leader in its market share in a leading position in the torch high-tech and Hunan Shenzhou has possessed a certain amount of technical base and market position, whereas a force far and Kane Share The main products are still limited to the single battery, power battery project under construction or under construction, the prospects unclear.

Third, the prospects for nickel-metal hydride batteries

Li Sheng-mao said that with the international oil price rose to 70 U.S. dollars, the new energy vehicles the advantages of starting to show. The world's crude oil supplies tight and prices continued to rise, government, research institutions and enterprises to accelerate the development and promotion of new energy vehicles for the direct driving forces. At the same time, the International Energy changes in the environment, but also for new energy vehicles (currently mainly hybrid cars) enters the stage, creating market conditions.

In the development of new energy vehicles, the nickel-metal hydride battery technology the most mature in the next three years, will remain the mainstream of new energy vehicles, followed by nickel-metal hydride battery technology and lithium iron phosphate, hydrogen fuel cells, one-third of the world, five years will be gradually lithium batteries and fuel cells are replaced. Battery giant Panasonic and Sanyo also found that the lithium-ion battery can not be replaced in 2 ~ 3 years, nickel-hydrogen batteries, mainly due to cheaper nickel-hydrogen battery safety, has reached large-scale production. Lithium batteries also need to continue to research topics, such as security, so take time commercial.

According to Japan's Fuji economic analysis, the mainstream nickel-metal hydride batteries will be able to continue until 2011, but after 2011, Li-ion battery will gradually erode the market share of the nickel-metal hydride batteries, the agency predicted in 2009 Ni-MH rechargeable battery-vehicle global market scale than the previous year by 23.7% to ¥ 92,000,000,000, but the 2015 Ni-MH rechargeable battery-vehicle market will fall to ¥ 55,000,000,000.

　　Part II: Dynamic Analysis of investment opportunities in the three lithium batteries

I. Analysis of lithium batteries

The traditional lead-acid batteries, nickel-cadmium batteries and nickel-metal hydride battery technology itself is relatively mature, but they are used in automotive batteries as a power, then there exists a larger problem. At present, more and more car manufacturers to choose from lithium batteries as a new energy car battery power.

Li-ion battery has the following advantages: small size, light weight, high voltage (which is nickel-cadmium batteries, nickel-hydrogen batteries 3 times) than the energy of large (up to 165WH / kg, nickel-hydrogen batteries 3 times), loop-shou long, self-discharge rate is low, no memory effect, no pollution, safety and good.

At present many well-known car manufacturers are working to develop lithium battery powered vehicles such as Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Hyundai, France, Courreges, Ventury so. While the domestic car manufacturer BYD, Geely, Chery, Lifan, ZTE and other car firms also have their own hybrid and pure electric vehicle powered by lithium battery power.

Investment advisers, based on years of monitoring data, as well as communication and related companies, the automotive lithium battery development, market size and future trends in-depth research, summed up study found that, from the development cycle, the current automotive lithium battery market is out of the start-up stage and started into rapid growth stage.

2, lithium batteries on the downstream industry and company analysis

Power battery industry chain including upstream cell non-ferrous materials, suppliers, midstream and downstream manufacturers battery materials lithium battery manufacturer in China. Of these, lithium iron phosphate power battery cathode materials, the most promising investment opportunities, while the key raw material in lithium iron phosphate is lithium carbonate, lithium carbonate derived from the mineral resources, in the nature reserves are limited, with strong regional and scarcity, are scarce resources. Thus, in the new energy automotive industry chain, lithium carbonate becomes the strategic importance of resources is particularly prominent.

(A), the downstream manufacturers of lithium batteries

Li Sheng-mao said the investment adviser, cars lithium battery industry contains a very large value of the potential electric car battery materials upstream suppliers and downstream manufacturers of automotive lithium batteries for automotive operations have been tiptoeing around a long time. Li-ion battery is behind the hot car prices on the plug-in hybrids (also known as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) and pure electric vehicle market prospects of the recognition and R & D capabilities of their current concerns. While the Bosch stand out by the end of 2008, said to be electric cars on the heat to keep sober, but even cool, such as Bosch, has also set up a joint venture with Samsung plans to achieve volume production and sales in 2011.

1, the Sino-Japanese and American auto lithium battery development situation analysis for

According to Deutsche Bank research shows that vehicle the following 10 companies most willing to work with companies to develop automotive lithium battery: 1) Johnson Controls-Saft (the United States and France, Johnson Controls and Saft joint venture); 2) A123 Systems, Inc. (from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology College, General Electric and other investors to set up the company's group of co-operation with the mainland); 3) LG Chemical (the company's U.S. subsidiary Compact Power); 4) EnerDel (Ener1 and Delphi joint venture); 5) AESC ( Nissan and NEC joint venture); 6) PEVE (a joint venture between Toyota and Matsushita); 7) GS Yuasa; 8) Hitachi; 9) Sanyo Electric; 10) Samsung.

Investment Advisor in the new energy automotive industry researcher Li Sheng-mao pointed out that the research can be found from the above, at present, the Japanese lithium battery suppliers in the global market indeed account for a large advantage. According to the Japanese after the disclosure of the Industrial Policy Bureau, Japan in 2010 will strive to lithium batteries for next-generation electric vehicles. Toyota, Nissan and Matsushita Electric Industrial and other related companies signed an agreement to jointly develop a new generation of unified specification cars lithium battery, and plans to mass production within 2 years. Toshiba decided to spend ¥ 50,000,000,000 development of electric vehicles using lithium-ion batteries, which will be held within two years of high-performance power into semi-commercial production.

In recent years, China's automotive lithium battery industry, from scratch, from small to large, rapid development, production capacity after Japan. China's lithium-ion battery industry began late in Japan, but developing very fast, in power lithium-ion battery research and development has also invested a great deal of financial and material resources. China's automotive lithium-ion battery R & D project has been the national "863" key project, much of the material to achieve the localization and the introduction of multi-national has been self-built production lines and supporting materials, factories have more than one, have been the formation of large-scale production, highly competitive market, primarily investment-driven industries.

China's BYD, Wanxiang Group, Shenzhen BAK Battery, Tianjin Lishen Battery Myers, a joint venture with the United States and so exposure to lithium battery research. However, at present the only master the vehicle lithium iron phosphate battery technology, large-scale production enterprises BYD, the world's leading position, BYD E6 pure electric vehicles and hybrid F3DM has officially launched its own carrying R & D of lithium power battery.

Recently, the U.S. battery companies are stepping up investment in lithium batteries for cars, such as power solutions company, Johnson Controls (Johnson Controls Power Solutions) recently said the company plans to invest 100 million U.S. dollars, in the Florence of Southern California, the construction of recycling car batteries factory. The U.S. government also heavily subsidized Boston-Power investment in electric car battery factory, will be in Auburn, Massachusetts United States to establish the company's first electric car battery factory.

2, power problems encountered in the development of lithium batteries

Currently impeding the development of lithium-ion battery power bottlenecks are: safety performance and vehicle power battery management system.

Safety performance, because the lithium-ion battery with energy density and working temperature is high, poor working conditions and other reasons, coupled with the safety of people-oriented concept, so the battery safety of users made a very high demand. Auto power battery management system, since the vehicle power battery voltage is 12V or 24V, but a single power lithium-ion battery voltage is 3.7V, the battery must be by a number of series and increase the voltage, but because of the battery is difficult to achieve completely homogeneous charge and discharge, leading to a number of battery packs in series within a single battery charge and discharge occur imbalance, the battery charge will appear under and over-discharge phenomenon, and this situation will lead to a sharp deterioration in battery performance and ultimately resulted in the entire group of cells does not work, or even scrapped, thus significantly affect battery life and reliability.

China auto industry analyst with investment advisers that Sheng-mao, power lithium-ion battery to get a good application, which is technically required from the material, batteries, management systems, taking into account the mechanical processing and other aspects. Therefore, the need for upstream and downstream enterprises to work together with the battery as the core of the material, the management system requests formation of an industry group, more conducive to technological advances and system costs.

3, the prospects for automotive lithium batteries

The future of new energy vehicles instead of the traditional automotive trend will become a necessity, automotive lithium batteries as a new energy vehicles in the "heart" will spawned a huge industry, economic effects. It is understood that the joint lead by the Ministry of Science and relevant state ministries and commissions will be 3 consecutive years in each of the 10 different cities were put in 1000 as a demonstration hybrid electric vehicle applications. Support for the state departments concerned, will further promote the demonstration and application of hybrid vehicles as a way to stimulate the development of lithium battery technology, as well as key parts and vehicle improvements in technology, new energy for after 2010, laid the foundation of the automobile industry.

According to the Investment Advisor "issued by China's new energy vehicles 2008-2010 Industry Analysis and Investment Consulting report" shows that the situation with China's energy resources and the development trend of the international automotive technology is expected by 2012, annual production will reach a new energy vehicles 1 million, while projected that by 2025, China accounted for regular gasoline vehicle holdings of passenger cars will be only around 50%, and advanced diesel and gas vehicles, bio-fuel vehicles such as the rapid development of new energy vehicles will be.

(B), the middle cell materials

1, lithium battery materials industry and company analysis of the status quo

Lithium battery materials can be divided into electrode (positive / negative) materials, separator and electrolyte. Li-ion battery cathode material is the core of the current lithium cobalt oxide, lithium manganese, lithium and nickel-cobalt-manganese-based lithium iron phosphate. Ze Yi graphite anode material, solid carbon particle-based; in the middle of positive and negative electrodes while the battery electrolyte and separator.

In the lithium battery industry chain, the current capacity comparison, due to high barriers to entry, lithium battery cathode material is the smallest capacity, which is the whole industry chain, the most promising aspect. Cathode materials currently in production companies are: China Baoan, CITIC Anhe Shanshangufen, BYD.

Compared with the cathode material, anode material for lithium battery costs accounted for the proportion of low-and domestic-oriented industries has been realized, the negative electrode materials, graphite, solid carbon particle-based. Currently engaged in lithium battery cathode material production enterprise in China, the top three national security, Shanshangufen, Long Sand Sea capacity, at present anode material able to basically meet the needs of the domestic market, but with the increasing popularity of new energy vehicles, the future market for this one a huge gap in demand will occur.

Domestic battery manufacturers supporting electrolyte has been basically achieved domestically. Main raw materials for the electrolyte lithium hexafluorophosphate, accounting for about 50% of the cost of the electrolyte, its production cost is 10 yuan / ton, priced at 40 yuan / ton, gross margin as high as 75%, but the market was largely Kanto Electric the chemical industry, SUTERAKEMIFA, Morita chemistry, several Japanese companies a monopoly.

Divide the Department of Li-ion materials technology, the highest barriers to a high-value-added material, gross profit margin is usually 70% or more, accounting for 20-30% of the cost of lithium batteries. Accordance with the terms of a car can be used in 1000-2000 m2 membrane. Divide the market is currently a serious shortage of supply, most dependent on imports, the market dominated by Japanese Asahi Chemical Industry, Tonen Chemical, and the United States Celgard dominate. Membrane with a typical "high-tech, high-capital" characteristics, and the project cycle is very long, the investment risk greater enthusiasm for investing in domestic enterprises is not high. At present, the domestic companies able to produce membrane only star-source technology, Jinhui High-Tech two technologies are relatively mature.

2, lithium battery materials, the development prospects of

According to the Investment Advisor "issued by China's new energy vehicles 2008-2010 Industry Analysis and Investment Consulting report" shows that the situation with China's energy resources and the development trend of the international automotive technology is expected by 2012, annual production will reach a new energy vehicles 1 million, while projected that by 2025, China accounted for regular gasoline vehicle holdings of passenger cars will be only around 50%, and advanced diesel and gas vehicles, bio-fuel vehicles such as the rapid development of new energy vehicles will be.

The future of new energy vehicles instead of the traditional automotive trend will become a necessity, power lithium batteries as a new energy vehicles in the "heart" will be spawned huge industrial and economic effects on the battery raw material suppliers and manufacturers who are huge commercial cake.

Investment Consultants in Lee Sheng-mao auto industry analyst predicts that by 2012 the annual production of new energy vehicles will reach 1 million, according to each new energy automotive batteries costs 7 million power lithium battery cathode material lithium iron phosphate 52 kilograms, anode material 41 kg, 40 kg calculation of the electrolyte. 1 million hybrid vehicles will drive the 52,000 tons cathode material, anode material for 41,000 tons, 40,000 tons electrolyte needs. For domestic battery manufacturers, this would be a gross output value of 70 billion yuan of the big cake. If calculated according to passenger cars, this value will increase three times - each hybrid passenger car battery demand is four times that.

(C), the upper reaches of lithium battery materials, lithium carbonate industry analysis

1, lithium carbonate industry status quo

According to Sheng-mao, the global lithium carbonate industry, the status quo, resource threshold high, capacity is highly concentrated. As of the end of 2007, the global lithium carbonate demand for a total of about 93,000 tons, a major international manufacturers have Chile's SQM, the United States and Germany, Chemtall total FMC annual capacity of 78,000 tons, accounting for 80% of global market share. Large-scale production of lithium carbonate as the enterprise must have reserves of lithium resources are more abundant in salt lake resources, mining rights, which makes the resources of the industry with higher barriers to entry; the other hand, the vast majority of the world's resources are high-magnesium salt low lithium-based , and from high-Mg low-lithium brine separation of lithium carbonate in the purification process technology is very difficult to master prior to these technologies is only a few hands of foreign companies, which makes lithium carbonate industry, but also provides many technical barriers. Therefore, lithium carbonate has created the industry's global oligopoly structure.

Lithium Salt Lake in the independent R & D, which provides technology and production process of magnesium on the basis of a number of large industrial enterprises in China in recent years in the depths of the Qaidam Basin Zabuye Salt Lake and start building lithium carbonate, magnesium hydroxide and other chemical products production base. The current domestic production of lithium carbonate enterprises mainly in Tibet, mining, CITIC Guoan, Western Mining Group, Qinghai Salt Lake Group, the four companies, while the Tibetan mining and CITIC Guoan has accounted for the vast majority of them, the two companies in 2008 Lithium Carbonate Total output of more than 4,000 tons.

Statistics show that the hinterland of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is located in the Qaidam Basin, rich in potassium, sodium, magnesium, lithium, boron and other mineral resources, including magnesium chloride 3.1 billion tons, accounting for about 99% of the country to maintain reserves; lithium chloride nearly 14 million tons, accounting for 83% of the country to maintain reserves. In early 2007, Qinghai CITIC Guoan Technology Development Corporation's West taijnar hu-ton lithium carbonate project formally put into production in the Qaidam Basin, the West Lake taijnar become an important production base for lithium carbonate.

2, lithium carbonate industry bottlenecks

At present, the global lithium carbonate production capacity is still low, the production costs are high, not really large-scale mining extraction, the company is still looking for more economical and reasonable mode of production, currently hamper the development of lithium carbonate industry is still the biggest problem is the production process technology. In the short term, Tibet, mining and technology in the production of CITIC Guoan is still inadequate, annual output is only 2,000 tons, respectively, representing a lower percentage of main business income is difficult to drive performance increased significantly.

Chinese Academy of Sciences, said Li Jian, researcher, Salt Lake extracting lithium, magnesium technology, to mention a "bottleneck" and gradually formed a breakthrough in industrial production shows that China has Salt Lake with independent intellectual property rights developed comprehensive utilization of resources based on comprehensive development of salt lake resources, access to large-scale production of lithium and magnesium in a new phase.

3, the domestic lithium carbonate production of business analysis

1. CITIC Guoan (000,839):

Qinghai CITIC Guoan currently holds 99.375% stake in national security. Qinghai National Security was established in 2003, mainly engaged in Qinghai Salt Lake, West taijnar lithium, potassium, boron, magnesium and other resources of the comprehensive development. West taijnar Salt Lake Qaidam Basin is located in the middle of an area of 570 square kilometers, the liquid resources to reserves of 3.08 million tons of lithium chloride, potassium chloride 26.56 million tons, 1.63 million tons of boron oxide, magnesium chloride 185.97 million tons. Calculated according to the design capacity, these resources available to the company for at least 25 years of mining, the potential economic value of 170 billion yuan.

2. Tibet Mining (000,762):

CITIC Guoan holds a lithium-magnesium associated minerals, the past two or three years has not been a breakthrough in technology, mining in Tibet dominant position in the upstream raw materials is quite highlights. The company now has lithium reserves in first in the country, the world's third largest mining rights Zabuye Salt Lake for 20 years. This is the world's only exists in the form of lithium carbonate in natural salt lakes, in addition to the natural bottom of the lake shore as well as the deposition of lithium carbonate, the water content of lithium carbonate in a conservative estimate as high as 200 million tons. The Mg-Li ratio was only 0.02, the anomaly from a high proportion of Mg-Li Lithium brine problems, so in the future benefit from the mining of Tibet has great potential.

3. Western Mining Group

Qinghai Western Mining Group currently controls 74% of the shares lithium industry. Qinghai Lithium Co., Ltd is currently in the East taijnar to meet the capital of Qinghai Salt Lake extracting lithium and utilization of resources industrialization demonstration projects. In October 2007, Western Mining Corporation design capacity of 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate project started for production purposes. After a year of operation and production process transformation and optimization, to September 2008 reached capacity lithium carbonate on the project to achieve, to the current production of lithium carbonate products for more than 1,000 tons, more than 99.5% product quality and achieve low-cost, non - high temperatures and corrosion, no gas, no residue cleaner emissions from large-scale production.

4. Salt Lake Group (000,578):

In order to comprehensive utilization of salt lake magnesium, lithium and other resources, "Eleventh Five-Year" period into Salt Lake Industry Group will invest an annual output of 100,000 tons anhydrous magnesium chloride, 10,000 tons lithium carbonate and so on, to build modern high-tech base in the salt industry. Salt Lake Group, a subsidiary of LandTek lithium industry, its processes, including resin adsorption, elution, concentration, membrane separation and carbonization process. Years ago, installed in the front part of the debugging resin adsorption. Lithium concentrations were lower due to brine a large number of brine to enter the resin bed, resin adsorption main problem is water consumption, resin consumption and power consumption, large, and because a substantial change in resin temperature adaptation is not enough, resulting in resin, are also addressing issues such as broken in. It is estimated that the average production of 1 ton lithium carbonate need to consume around 600 tons of fresh water, the average consumption level of renewable pH of about 5% of resin consumption is about 5% each. The cost of production the need for further observation, expects its costs will be 1.5 tons million yuan.

4, lithium carbonate industry outlook

Li Sheng-mao said, from the development trend, new energy cars is undoubtedly the future direction of automotive development, while the lithium battery powered electric vehicles is the best choice. The future market for lithium batteries and battery raw materials, demand is enormous. For this reason, lithium carbonate, once mining extraction technology is a breakthrough, cost-effective reduction to achieve large-scale industrial production, the outlook for the future will be very broad.

According to the Investment Advisor "issued by China's new energy vehicles 2008-2010 Industry Analysis and Investment Consulting Report" points out that by 2012, China had 10% of the new production of the cars are energy-saving and new energy vehicles, according to an annual output of cars will be cars for the 10 million counted, China's new energy vehicles to reach an annual output of 1 million scale. Each new motor vehicle is expected to need about 0.08 tons of lithium carbonate, lithium batteries once the driving force large-scale application of new energy vehicles, the lithium carbonate market potential will be very huge, new energy sources is expected to only 2012 cars on the annual demand for lithium carbonate will reach 5 million tons.

The current domestic price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate to 45,000 yuan / ton or so, battery grade lithium carbonate price of 70,000 yuan / ton or so, high purity lithium carbonate price is as high as 100,000 yuan / ton or more, domestic involved in new projects because it is extracted using salt brine lithium carbonate, production costs in the 10000-15000 yuan / tons. Therefore, the market generally felt that the profitability of lithium carbonate products is very high, will give investors a huge increase.

　　Summary: 5 years after the lithium battery to replace nickel-metal hydride batteries mainstream

Lithium-ion battery in 2-3 years, although difficult to replace the nickel-hydrogen batteries, however, not be overlooked is the future of lithium batteries will replace the nickel-metal hydride batteries into the mainstream of new energy vehicles. At present, Japan's leading automotive and battery businesses have invested in building lithium-ion power battery production line, concentrated in the 2010-2011 production. Fuji economy that the lithium-ion battery will begin in 2011 to gradually replace the nickel-metal hydride batteries, lithium-ion battery, as no doubt the future of mainstream technology route.

Japan's "Economic News" recently reported that the Japanese will be the Japanese economy, Trade and Industry as the center of the external groups to develop programs, Japan, Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Suzuki, Mitsubishi, Mazda, Fuji Heavy Industries, Daihatsu, Yamaha, 9 cars, motorcycle manufacturing enterprises and Sanyo Electric, Hitachi, Ltd., Matsushita Battery Industrial, pasona energy, GSYUASA companies, battery manufacturers, along with Tokyo Electric Power Co., Japan Automobile Research Institute, Economic, Trade and Industry, Infrastructure and Transport Ministry and other units will participate in a pilot to develop uniform specifications and safety standards for lithium batteries. Meanwhile, the charging method will also be standardized.

According to Japan Automobile Research Institute is expected, according to the popularity of hybrids is now estimated that by 2020, hybrid car in Japan will reach about 360 million. If the high-performance lithium battery for more promotion, usage is likely to further reach 7.2 million level. Media critics said that if Japan can be a new generation of automotive lithium batteries to obtain ISO certification opportunities to master the initiative, and the enterprises will benefit immensely.

In this regard, the investment advisers new energy automotive industry researcher Li Sheng-mao, not without anxiety that, in lithium battery technology is mature, the nickel-metal hydride battery market will be gradually eroded lithium battery, 5 years later, the mainstream nickel-metal hydride batteries will be lithium batteries replaced. Person who, without their finest hour, the current A shares in the torch high in 2010 and 2011, respectively, of their nickel-metal hydride battery production line expansion, its future to face greater risk of investment recovery.

Li Sheng-mao said, technological advances, China's car prices and the related battery business in addition to promoting the industrialization of nickel-metal hydride batteries, more attention should be put some of the long-term, to devote human resources to carry out power lithium battery research and development, and to maintain the fuel cell technical follow-up, in order to occupy a broader new energy car market ready. China's traditional vehicle for at least 10 years behind the Western countries, however, new energy vehicles as an emerging area of new energy vehiclesChina's auto industry to catch up with the world is becoming a rare automobile technology "leapfrog" opportunity for domestic enterprises want to be able to seize the opportunity to emerge in the next round of the automotive industry.